{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slug": "source-type-triangulation-48-claim-test",
  "title": "When Does a Second Source Change the Answer? A 48-Claim Triangulation Test",
  "runDate": "2026-07-28",
  "executed": true,
  "sanitized": true,
  "question": "Across forty-eight designed claims, how often does a source with a different institutional role reveal conflict or a narrower scope?",
  "baseline": "A single credible source supplies one evidentiary role but cannot reveal disagreement that becomes visible only across source types.",
  "protocol": [
    "Freeze forty-eight claim packets with a first source and a second source of a different type.",
    "Classify the pair as corroboration, scope narrowing, or conflict before aggregation.",
    "Count an answer change only when the permitted conclusion must narrow or preserve disagreement."
  ],
  "sample": {
    "claimPackets": 48,
    "sourceTypes": 3
  },
  "results": {
    "changedAnswers": 24,
    "conflicts": 12,
    "scopeNarrowing": 12,
    "corroborations": 24
  },
  "negativeFindings": [
    "Half of the second sources did not change the answer; triangulation is not valuable merely because it adds another citation."
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "The relationships were designed and adjudicated in advance, so the test demonstrates a method rather than estimating real-world disagreement rates."
  ],
  "records": [
    {
      "claimId": "T01",
      "firstSourceType": "official",
      "secondSourceType": "statistics",
      "relationship": "conflict",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "report disagreement"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T02",
      "firstSourceType": "research",
      "secondSourceType": "official",
      "relationship": "scope-narrowing",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "narrow the population or time boundary"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T03",
      "firstSourceType": "statistics",
      "secondSourceType": "research",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T04",
      "firstSourceType": "official",
      "secondSourceType": "statistics",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T05",
      "firstSourceType": "research",
      "secondSourceType": "official",
      "relationship": "conflict",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "report disagreement"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T06",
      "firstSourceType": "statistics",
      "secondSourceType": "research",
      "relationship": "scope-narrowing",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "narrow the population or time boundary"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T07",
      "firstSourceType": "official",
      "secondSourceType": "statistics",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T08",
      "firstSourceType": "research",
      "secondSourceType": "official",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T09",
      "firstSourceType": "statistics",
      "secondSourceType": "research",
      "relationship": "conflict",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "report disagreement"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T10",
      "firstSourceType": "official",
      "secondSourceType": "statistics",
      "relationship": "scope-narrowing",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "narrow the population or time boundary"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T11",
      "firstSourceType": "research",
      "secondSourceType": "official",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T12",
      "firstSourceType": "statistics",
      "secondSourceType": "research",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T13",
      "firstSourceType": "official",
      "secondSourceType": "statistics",
      "relationship": "conflict",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "report disagreement"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T14",
      "firstSourceType": "research",
      "secondSourceType": "official",
      "relationship": "scope-narrowing",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "narrow the population or time boundary"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T15",
      "firstSourceType": "statistics",
      "secondSourceType": "research",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T16",
      "firstSourceType": "official",
      "secondSourceType": "statistics",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T17",
      "firstSourceType": "research",
      "secondSourceType": "official",
      "relationship": "conflict",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "report disagreement"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T18",
      "firstSourceType": "statistics",
      "secondSourceType": "research",
      "relationship": "scope-narrowing",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "narrow the population or time boundary"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T19",
      "firstSourceType": "official",
      "secondSourceType": "statistics",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T20",
      "firstSourceType": "research",
      "secondSourceType": "official",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T21",
      "firstSourceType": "statistics",
      "secondSourceType": "research",
      "relationship": "conflict",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "report disagreement"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T22",
      "firstSourceType": "official",
      "secondSourceType": "statistics",
      "relationship": "scope-narrowing",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "narrow the population or time boundary"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T23",
      "firstSourceType": "research",
      "secondSourceType": "official",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T24",
      "firstSourceType": "statistics",
      "secondSourceType": "research",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T25",
      "firstSourceType": "official",
      "secondSourceType": "statistics",
      "relationship": "conflict",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "report disagreement"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T26",
      "firstSourceType": "research",
      "secondSourceType": "official",
      "relationship": "scope-narrowing",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "narrow the population or time boundary"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T27",
      "firstSourceType": "statistics",
      "secondSourceType": "research",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T28",
      "firstSourceType": "official",
      "secondSourceType": "statistics",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T29",
      "firstSourceType": "research",
      "secondSourceType": "official",
      "relationship": "conflict",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "report disagreement"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T30",
      "firstSourceType": "statistics",
      "secondSourceType": "research",
      "relationship": "scope-narrowing",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "narrow the population or time boundary"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T31",
      "firstSourceType": "official",
      "secondSourceType": "statistics",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T32",
      "firstSourceType": "research",
      "secondSourceType": "official",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T33",
      "firstSourceType": "statistics",
      "secondSourceType": "research",
      "relationship": "conflict",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "report disagreement"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T34",
      "firstSourceType": "official",
      "secondSourceType": "statistics",
      "relationship": "scope-narrowing",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "narrow the population or time boundary"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T35",
      "firstSourceType": "research",
      "secondSourceType": "official",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T36",
      "firstSourceType": "statistics",
      "secondSourceType": "research",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T37",
      "firstSourceType": "official",
      "secondSourceType": "statistics",
      "relationship": "conflict",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "report disagreement"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T38",
      "firstSourceType": "research",
      "secondSourceType": "official",
      "relationship": "scope-narrowing",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "narrow the population or time boundary"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T39",
      "firstSourceType": "statistics",
      "secondSourceType": "research",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T40",
      "firstSourceType": "official",
      "secondSourceType": "statistics",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T41",
      "firstSourceType": "research",
      "secondSourceType": "official",
      "relationship": "conflict",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "report disagreement"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T42",
      "firstSourceType": "statistics",
      "secondSourceType": "research",
      "relationship": "scope-narrowing",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "narrow the population or time boundary"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T43",
      "firstSourceType": "official",
      "secondSourceType": "statistics",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T44",
      "firstSourceType": "research",
      "secondSourceType": "official",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T45",
      "firstSourceType": "statistics",
      "secondSourceType": "research",
      "relationship": "conflict",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "report disagreement"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T46",
      "firstSourceType": "official",
      "secondSourceType": "statistics",
      "relationship": "scope-narrowing",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": true,
      "permittedConclusion": "narrow the population or time boundary"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T47",
      "firstSourceType": "research",
      "secondSourceType": "official",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "T48",
      "firstSourceType": "statistics",
      "secondSourceType": "research",
      "relationship": "corroboration",
      "secondSourceChangesAnswer": false,
      "permittedConclusion": "retain the bounded claim"
    }
  ]
}