{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slug": "scenario-signpost-specificity-80-indicator-test",
  "title": "What Makes a Scenario Signpost Useful? An 80-Indicator Test",
  "runDate": "2026-07-28",
  "executed": true,
  "sanitized": true,
  "question": "Which combinations of observability, direction, threshold, time window, and scenario exclusivity make an indicator discriminating rather than decorative?",
  "baseline": "A vague trend phrase can fit several futures after the fact and therefore cannot tell a reader which scenario is becoming more plausible.",
  "protocol": [
    "Freeze eighty indicators crossing five binary specificity properties.",
    "Score one point for each property and require scenario exclusivity for discrimination.",
    "Report the declared classification rule and every indicator-level result."
  ],
  "sample": {
    "indicators": 80,
    "properties": 5
  },
  "results": {
    "discriminatingIndicators": 15,
    "fullySpecifiedIndicators": 3,
    "meanSpecificity": 2.6
  },
  "negativeFindings": [
    "Several highly specified indicators still failed the test because they were compatible with more than one scenario."
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Specificity is necessary for later falsification but does not establish forecasting accuracy."
  ],
  "records": [
    {
      "indicatorId": "I01",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 5,
      "discriminating": true
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I02",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 4,
      "discriminating": true
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I03",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 4,
      "discriminating": true
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I04",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I05",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 4,
      "discriminating": true
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I06",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I07",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I08",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I09",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 4,
      "discriminating": true
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I10",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I11",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I12",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I13",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I14",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I15",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I16",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 1,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I17",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 4,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I18",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I19",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I20",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I21",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I22",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I23",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I24",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 1,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I25",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I26",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I27",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I28",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 1,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I29",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I30",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 1,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I31",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 1,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I32",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 0,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I33",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 5,
      "discriminating": true
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I34",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 4,
      "discriminating": true
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I35",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 4,
      "discriminating": true
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I36",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I37",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 4,
      "discriminating": true
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I38",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I39",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I40",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I41",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 4,
      "discriminating": true
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I42",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I43",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I44",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I45",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I46",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I47",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I48",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 1,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I49",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 4,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I50",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I51",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I52",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I53",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I54",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I55",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I56",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 1,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I57",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I58",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I59",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I60",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 1,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I61",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I62",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 1,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I63",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 1,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I64",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": false,
      "specificity": 0,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I65",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 5,
      "discriminating": true
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I66",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 4,
      "discriminating": true
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I67",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 4,
      "discriminating": true
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I68",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I69",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 4,
      "discriminating": true
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I70",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I71",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I72",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": true,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I73",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 4,
      "discriminating": true
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I74",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I75",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I76",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": true,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I77",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 3,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I78",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": true,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I79",
      "observable": true,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 2,
      "discriminating": false
    },
    {
      "indicatorId": "I80",
      "observable": false,
      "directional": false,
      "thresholded": false,
      "timeBound": false,
      "scenarioExclusive": true,
      "specificity": 1,
      "discriminating": false
    }
  ]
}